First Words

I have been following various economic and investment-oriented blogs for a couple years. I have learned a lot.

However, I often come across ideas that don't seem to make sense to me. There are two possible reasons: I just don't get it, or the idea itself isn't right.

In the hopes of helping me understand these ideas and, in the process, help others, I thought I would comment on them and see what feedback I get so I can figure out which of the two reasons seems to be applicable.

Many of the ideas I am talking about have achieved the status of memes. They are commonly held beliefs, trotted out without question or critical analysis, and it seems to me to be a good thing to challenge some of these memes to see if they really hold up.

I hope to be able to put these ideas into any one of four categories:

1. The idea is, in fact, correct and stands up to scrutiny.
2. The idea is simply and demonstrably wrong.
3. The idea contains a kernal of truth but is not operative to the extent its proponents claim.
4. The idea is correct but not for the reasons usually put forth.

My general approach to any kind of debate or discussion is to try to dig right down to the fundamental set of ideas that ultimately are a matter of opinion i.e. to find what is at the core of the disagreement. Then at least one can say: if you believe "a" then you should conclude "x", if you believe "b" then you should conclude "y". And no-one can say "a" or "b" is correct since they are a matter of speculation about the future and the actions of parties over which one has no control.

Perhaps an example might help here. I have been greatly fascinated by the inflation / deflation debate. It seems to me the whole debate comes down to: If you believe the Fed is controlled by politicians, and you believe politicians pander to the majority, then you will conclude that the Fed will inflate until our currency collapses in a hyperinflationary super-nova. If you believe the Fed will act to preserve the dollar and protect creditors (i.e. the banking community) then you must conclude the Fed will be unable to prevent a deflationary credit collapse and a severe recession (possibly even a second depression).

So, for now, anyone can comment, there are no rules. I will correct my posts for grammar / spelling as needed; if I make edits that materially change the content I will highlight those edits. I would welcome suggestions for topics (economic or investment related) to tackle.

Talk to you all soon.